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    Cigna Group (CI)

    Q1 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$357.18Last close (May 1, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$360.00Open (May 2, 2024)
    Price Change
    $2.82(+0.79%)
    • Cigna is well-positioned to capitalize on the large and growing specialty pharmacy market, valued at about $400 billion today and growing at high single digits, leveraging its unique capabilities in managing complex therapies and biosimilars like HUMIRA to drive growth and attractive margins.
    • The company delivered strong financial performance with better-than-expected medical care ratios, demonstrating effective cost management and operational efficiency even amidst industry disruptions such as the Change Healthcare incident.
    • Cigna has a strong capital position and is committed to returning value to shareholders, with plans to complete at least $5 billion in share repurchases by the end of June 2024.
    • Margins in the individual exchange business are expected to remain below the target range, ending slightly below the 4%-6% target margin range, and membership is down sequentially due to corrective pricing actions.
    • Medicare membership is declining, even though the overall market is growing, as their membership is down, while the overall market is up and some competitors are up more than that.
    • The Change Healthcare incident caused operational disruptions, requiring $650 million in additional reserves, and the Specialty and Care Services segment's margin decreased year-over-year.
    1. MLR Trends & ACA Margins
      Q: Can you elaborate on MLR trends and ACA margins?
      A: The company reported a strong medical care ratio (MLR), better than expectations, contributing to income outperformance in the quarter. In the U.S. employer business, inpatient facility claims remained elevated but consistent with expectations. There was modest favorability in outpatient and surgical categories, with cost trends decelerating relative to recent periods and projections. The individual ACA exchange business had a mix-related timing benefit due to a higher percentage of bronze plans, resulting in a timing-related MCR benefit in Q1. Overall, the individual exchange margins are improving but are expected to end slightly below the target margin range of 4% to 6% for 2024.

    2. VillageMD Impairment & Strategy
      Q: What's the impact of VillageMD impairment on strategy and investment?
      A: Despite a noncash write-down of the VillageMD investment, the strategic direction remains unchanged. The carrying value of the investment is now slightly above $900 million. The dividend associated with the investment, originally at a 5.5% dividend stream, continues to be collected as expected. The company focuses on highly established "go-deep" markets where VillageMD continues to grow and perform well.

    3. Capital Deployment & Share Repurchase
      Q: What's the update on capital deployment and share repurchase plans?
      A: The company remains committed to executing its share repurchase plans, aiming to complete at least $5 billion by the end of June. The majority of discretionary cash flow in 2024 will be used for share repurchase, reflected in the full-year weighted average shares outstanding and EPS guidance. The capital priorities remain unchanged, focusing on internal reinvestment, attractive shareholder dividends, debt repayment to maintain the targeted 40% debt-to-capital ratio, and strategic M&A.

    4. Specialty Business Margins & Biosimilars
      Q: How are specialty margins and biosimilar opportunities progressing?
      A: The Specialty and Care Services segment reported 12% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1. Income growth showed quarter-to-quarter variability, with margins down slightly year-over-year due to a particularly strong Q1 in the prior year. The company sees significant opportunities in biosimilars, including HUMIRA, with capabilities positioned to uniquely drive superior value. The specialty marketplace is large, at $400 billion, growing high single digits, with the company's growth rate above that.

    5. GLP-1 Program Economics & Employer Interest
      Q: What's the traction and economics around the GLP-1 program?
      A: There is significant interest and need from clients to manage the affordability of GLP-1 medications. The company's EnCircleRx solution, a first-of-its-kind offering, brings together supply chain and clinical capabilities to provide the right clinical support while guaranteeing outcomes to clients. Approximately 50% of employers now cover GLP-1s for weight loss, up from 40-50% previously. Larger employers and those with lower employee turnover tend to cover more.

    6. Change Healthcare Disruption Costs
      Q: How did the Change Healthcare disruption impact costs and claims visibility?
      A: The company experienced some disruption in claims submissions and payments due to the Change Healthcare incident, which is reflected in the results. There was an additional $650 million of reserves associated with the disruption. Approximately two-thirds of this was a timing issue with late claims submissions, which are now essentially all paid. The other one-third is an estimate of incurred but not reported claims due to provider workflow disruptions.

    7. Membership & PBM RFP Outlook
      Q: What's the early view on membership and PBM RFPs for 2025?
      A: The selling season is off to a good start, with strong retention rates expected to remain in the mid-90s or better for 2025. The portion of the book of business out to bid for 2025 is smaller compared to prior years. In the national accounts business, there's an uptick in RFP volumes, which is positive. Themes include employers looking to consolidate vendors, increased demand for mental health benefits, and digitally enabled care navigation.

    8. Value-Based Care Employer Characteristics
      Q: What types of employers are interested in value-based care solutions?
      A: Broadly, the value-based care (VBC) strategy resonates with most employers as it is inclusive and not network restrictive. The company's VBC model focuses on aligning incentives, data flows, and care extenders to improve quality and affordability, which benefits employers of all sizes. Programs like Pathwell, which redesign specific care states, tend to initially attract larger employers who spend more time on benefit design but are being packaged for small to mid-sized employers as well.

    9. Specialty Margin Seasonality
      Q: How should we think about seasonality in the specialty business margins?
      A: The Specialty and Care Services business tends to have more variability from quarter to quarter. Unlike the pharmacy benefit services segment, which shows sequential income growth each quarter, the specialty business does not have an upward slope throughout the year. Over time, the company expects to achieve an 8% to 12% average annual income growth rate in the specialty business.

    10. HUMIRA Strategy: Sole Source vs Multiple Manufacturers
      Q: Is it better to align with limited or single manufacturers for HUMIRA biosimilars?
      A: The company prefers to provide choice and maximum flexibility by not being dependent on a single manufacturer. Their approach assembles a robust set of supply and suppliers, offering interchangeable biosimilar adalimumab across all concentrations. This strategy ensures clinical effectiveness and positions the company well as new entrants and therapies come to market.

    11. Stop-Loss True-Up & Normal MLR
      Q: Are we back to normal year-to-year stop-loss MLR?
      A: In Q4, there was favorable claims experience in the stop-loss book, driving above-target profitability in 2023. The expectation for 2024 is a normalization back to target profit margin levels, consistent with what is being observed so far. An appropriate level of prudence is maintained in guidance for the medical care ratio and income for the full year.